Meanwhile, the Trump administration will be willing to carry forward the ongoing cooperation between the two countries in defence. The Obama administration has all but cleared the sale of 22 Guardian unarmed drones to be used for maritime domain awareness, and the new administration is likely to complete the process. The Trump administration is also willing to go a step further and favourably look at India’s pending request for Avenger armed drones. After being designated a major defence partner by the Obama administration, India’s requests for high technology are now considered with a ‘presumption of approval’ as opposed to ‘presumption of denial’. But each request is individually vetted and the decision is largely a political one.
What will Mr. Trump want in return? Indian policy-makers, who remember Barack Obama’s warming up to China in the initial years, would be happy to see some American pressure on Beijing. But Mr. Trump might want India to openly partner with, or even be frontline in tackling, China, according to one view.
During his recent visit to Delhi, Admiral Harry Harris, the U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM) chief, reiterated a long pending demand that India sign the COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) that would enhance joint surveillance of Chinese vessels. But Mr. Trump may put pressure on other Asian partners first viz. his China policy, according to Sameer Lalwani, Deputy Director, South Asia, at the Stimson Center. “If the Trump administration pressures regional powers to do more to counter China, it will most likely start with its allies like Japan, Korea, and Australia, which have the most at stake and proximate capabilities. That said, the asymmetric generosity of U.S. technology access and diplomatic support with little immediate return is unlikely to persist. An administration committed to its transactional rhetoric will likely demand more from the relationship with India.”
Demand for troops
The previous Defence Secretary, Ashton Carter, had immense patience and was sympathetic towards India’s constraints in confronting China. The new Defence Secretary, James Mattis, who made very favourable statements about India during his confirmation hearing, could be more demanding. Moreover, it is unclear how his Pakistan strategy will shape up. He and National Security Adviser Michael Flynn are both Afghanistan-Pakistan veterans. India’s consistent demand that the U.S. bring more pressure on Pakistan to take action against terrorist groups could be met with another demand from the Trump team — for Indian boots on the ground in Afghanistan. By ratcheting up tensions with Iran, the Trump administration has limited its latitude to pursue an Afghan policy less dependent on Pakistan. India’s reticence in sending its soldiers to fight wars elsewhere has remained a U.S. grouse. In an effort to move closer to the U.S., the Vajpayee government had considered sending troops to Iraq in 2003, but aborted the move after domestic opposition. The Trump White House may be less understanding about India’s domestic sentiment.
It is also not clear whether the Trump team will be pro-active on India’s bid for membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It is not impossible, but it is also not likely. It is a different matter that America does not command that kind of power today.
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